Why Melbourne remains one of Australia’s strongest long-term property markets

Melbourne’s fundamentals are back in focus

Australia’s property market has rarely moved in a straight line. Over the past decade, different capital cities have taken turns leading the cycle, with Brisbane and Perth recording periods of rapid growth, and Sydney continuing to test affordability limits.

Melbourne’s growth story has been more measured, but its long-term appeal remains clear. The city is supported by population growth, economic depth, infrastructure investment and relative accessibility within a major capital city market.

Melbourne is now home to more than 5.4 million people, making it Australia’s second largest city and one of its most significant economic centres¹. Victoria also continues to capture a significant share of Australia’s population growth, with net overseas migration reaching 305,600 people nationally from 2024 to 2025². Over the same period, Melbourne recorded the largest population gain of any capital city, growing by 105,030 people³.

Victoria is projected to remain one of Australia’s fastest growing states, with sustained population growth expected well into the coming decades. For the housing market, this creates a clear and ongoing driver of demand.

Economic diversity underpins stability

Population growth drives demand, but economic strength helps sustain it.

Melbourne’s economy is supported by major sectors including healthcare, education, construction, professional services and technology. This breadth reduces reliance on any single industry and helps create more stable employment conditions over time.

Education is a key part of this economic base. Victoria attracted around 147,000 international students in 2025, while international education generated $17.9 billion in export revenue⁴, reinforcing its role as one of the state’s most valuable services sectors. This activity contributes to population growth, rental demand and broader spending across the economy.

Melbourne’s employment base is also supported by major health, research and innovation precincts. The Monash Precinct, Victoria’s largest employment hub outside the CBD, is home to more than 24,000 businesses and supports nearly 128,000 jobs⁵, bringing together education, health, science and industry activity in one of the city’s most significant economic clusters.

Large-scale infrastructure investment adds another layer of economic activity. Projects such as the Suburban Rail Loop are expected to support 24,000 jobs during construction⁶ while improving connections between key employment, education and health precincts across Melbourne. Together, these sectors and investments provide a broader base of demand and help reduce volatility when compared with smaller or more specialised markets.

A more accessible entry point

Affordability remains one of the strongest forces shaping buyer behaviour.

Melbourne continues to offer a meaningful price advantage over Sydney, with median house prices sitting around $600,000 lower in Melbourne in comparison to Sydney⁷. For buyers priced out of Australia’s most expensive capital, Melbourne offers access to a major city market at a comparatively lower entry point.

This relative value is particularly important across Melbourne’s outer metropolitan growth corridors, where first home buyers, young families and investors are seeking more attainable pathways into the market.

Melbourne has also maintained a more measured growth pattern than some other markets. While cities such as Brisbane have experienced rapid increases in recent years, these gains have often been accompanied by sharper cycles. Melbourne’s appeal lies in the combination of relative value, long-term growth drivers and lower exposure to short-term volatility.

Infrastructure is changing Melbourne’s growth map

Melbourne’s infrastructure pipeline continues to reinforce its long-term outlook.

Major projects such as the Metro Tunnel, West Gate Tunnel and North East Link represent billions of dollars in investment aimed at improving connectivity across the city. These projects are designed to ease congestion, improve cross-city movement and strengthen access to employment, education and health precincts beyond the CBD.

This investment expands the city’s practical boundaries. It improves access to jobs and services, supports emerging communities and gives buyers greater confidence in growth areas.

Improved links between Melbourne and regional centres such as Geelong are also reshaping how people live and work, allowing buyers to access lifestyle benefits while remaining connected to metropolitan employment.

Demand is shifting towards growth corridors

As affordability pressures continue, demand is increasingly moving towards Melbourne’s growth corridors.

Areas across the north, west and south-east are experiencing strong population increases, driven largely by first home buyers and young families seeking more accessible entry points into the market. These locations offer a balance of affordability, connectivity and future upside, supported by ongoing infrastructure investment.

This shift is being reinforced by the constrained supply of titled land in many corridors. Limited availability is contributing to competition among buyers and increasing the importance of delivering new housing opportunities in areas where demand is already established.

House and land options continue to play a key role in this market, particularly for buyers seeking a practical pathway into home ownership.

The role of masterplanned communities

As demand grows, expectations around new communities are also changing.

Buyers are increasingly weighing access to schools, transport, open space, retail, employment and local amenity alongside the home itself. In growth corridors, masterplanned communities help establish the first layer of local identity, from streets and parks to walking links, town centres and shared spaces.

The task for developers is to create communities with the amenity, access and local character needed to hold value over the long term.

Cedar Woods and Victoria’s growth story

For Cedar Woods, these trends are reflected across its Victorian portfolio, from established mixed-use communities to connected regional markets.

In the north, Mason Quarter in Wollert demonstrates the increasing demand for communities that support families through access to education, amenity and future transport connections. Wollert is set to grow from 28,700 residents to 59,000 by 2040⁹, while the broader City of Whittlesea is forecast to have approximately 37,000 more children aged under 17 by 2038¹⁰. This growth reinforces the need for new schools, early learning centres and community infrastructure across Melbourne’s northern corridor, with local education options including Umarkoo Primary School and the future Hume Anglican Grammar Wollert campus supporting the area’s appeal for families. Together, these factors position Mason Quarter within an area where education access and long-term liveability are becoming increasingly important drivers of demand.

Across our communities, including Mason Quarter, we are aligned with where demand is heading: towards well-connected, more attainable locations that benefit from population growth, infrastructure investment and amenity, supporting long-term value.

A market built for the long term

Melbourne’s position as a leading investment market is built on population growth, economic diversity and infrastructure investment.

Victoria remains one of Australia’s fastest growing states. Melbourne continues to record the largest population increases of any capital city. Entry prices remain lower than Sydney, providing greater accessibility for buyers seeking a foothold in a major capital city market.

Together, these factors create a resilient and forward-looking market. For buyers and investors seeking long-term value, Melbourne continues to stand out. For Cedar Woods, the opportunity is clear: to continue delivering communities in the connected, high-growth locations where Victoria’s long-term demand is already taking form.

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